Resources

Resources related to the decision support tool and the wider ARCoES project are listed below. We have also included a short animation that shows how to use the Mapviewer to apply different sea and storm levels to view the flood depths and hazards these might generate.

Video showing how to use the MapViewer

Sea level rise and sea level projections

In the Mapviewer, users are invited to adjust the sea level from 0.00 m to 5.50 m. There are a great number of resources available explaining the causes and projected magnitudes of sea level rise under different emissions scenarios.

For concise information on the causes and implications of sea level rise, please see Post Note Number 555 https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pn-0555/

For details on how sea level projections are made, see Post Brief Number 25 https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pb-0025/

The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/collaboration/ukcp/about , a tool that forms part of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme, provides updated observations and projections to 2100 in the UK and globally.

• UKCP18 Factsheet: Sea level rise and storm surge https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-fact-sheet-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surge.pdf
• UKCP18 Marine Climate Change Infographic https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-infographic-headline-findings-marine.pdf

The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change gave detailed sea level projections under a range of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf . New sea level projections will be discussed in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6), which is in preparation. A partially updated projection is available in Chapter 4 of the special report The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/ .

A useful introduction to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), used in climate change and sea level projections can be found in The Beginner's Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways by G.P. Wayne, available from https://skepticalscience.com/rcp.php .

The UK Met Office has also produced a guide to RCPs ://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-guidance---representative-concentration-pathways.pdf .

Storm level

In the Mapviewer, users are invited to adjust the Storm level as well as the sea level. Storms cause flooding at the coast by raising the sea level. In the Mapviewer Storm level is presented as a ratio, from 1:1 yr to 1:10000 yr, which represents the return period and is a standard way of describing the likelihood of an event of a specific severity occurring.

The return period is the probability of an event (in this case a storm) happening and refers to the average length of time between storms of that severity happening in the UK. This does not mean that if a 1:100 yr event occurred this year it would not happen again for 100 years (it could occur twice or more in a year, or not at all in 100 years). It should be thought of that a 1:100 yr event has a 1 in 100 (1%) chance of occurring in any year, regardless of when the last event of that magnitude occurred.

Overlays

Overlays in the Mapviewer give additional information about energy infrastructure (i.e. substations, pylons, etc.) and management strategies in the form of Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs). SMPs give information on the agreed coastal management strategies for 20, 50 and 100 years into the future. There are four management strategies:

• Hold the line (HTL) - build or maintain defences so that the shoreline position remains in its current location.
• Managed realignment (MR) - allowing part of the shoreline to move naturally, usually applied in low-lying areas, but occasionally also to cliffs.
• No Active intervention (NAI) - no planned investment in defending the coastline against flooding or erosion, whether or not a defence has previously existed. (This is also sometimes referred to as a "do nothing" approach).
• Advance the line (ATL) - new defences are built seaward of the current shoreline position, effectively creating new land. This is very rare in the UK.

The ARCoES project

More information on the wider ARCoES project and its outputs can be found by clicking here

ARCoES produced a series of five videos explaining different parts of the project:

• Supporting decision makers - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dh8-n1kx_pg Describes the rationale behind various elements of the ARCoES decision support tool (DST).
• Science in society - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD5TYuX6W8E How ARCoES explored the impact of changing coastlines and coastal flooding on energy supply and society.
• Impacting the Environment - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dS2UNXwLHfM How ARCoES investigated the potential impact of climate change on the coastal environment and health.
• Storm chasing - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FflX9Aq8Yjg How the effects of storms on the coast are measured and monitored.
• Applying computer models - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnc5O9zCIDU Describes how models help understand how and why coastlines are changing now and in the future.

ARCoES also contributed to Living with Environmental Change (LWEC) Policy & Practice Notes. No.30 Building coastal resilience to sea level rise and storms in the UK https://nerc.ukri.org/research/partnerships/ride/lwec/ppn/ppn30/

Modelling

If you are interested in finding out more about numerical models for coastal resilience and decision support Liverpool Institute for Coasts and Oceans (LISCO) have produced a series of videos - https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/liverpool-sustainable-coasts-and-oceans/coastal-resilience/projects/feasability-of-mega-recharge/modelling-monitoring-decision-support/

Peer reviewed journal articles

Brown J.M., Morrissey K., Knight P., Prime T.D., Almeida L.P., Masselink G., Bird C.O., Dodds D. and Plater A.J. (2018) A coastal vulnerability assessment for planning climate resilient infrastructure. Ocean and Coastal Management, 163, 101-112. https:://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.06.007

Jevrejeva S., Jackson L.P., Riva R.E.M., Grinsted A. and Moore J.C. (2016). Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113 (47), 13342-13347. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/113/47/13342.full.pdf

Knight P., Prime T., Brown J., Morrissey K., Plater A. (2015). Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15 (7), 1457-1471. https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/15/1457/2015/nhess-15-1457-2015.pdf

Prime T., Brown J.M., Plater A.J. (2015). Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities. PloS ONE, 10 (2), e0117030. http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117030

Prime T., Morrissey K., Brown J.M. and Plater A.J. (2018) Protecting energy infrastructure against the uncertainty of future climate change: A real options approach. Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics, 5 (1), Article 3. https://cbe.miis.edu/joce/vol5/iss1/3/